Radical Uncertainty: Scenario planning for futures

Abstract

The use of scenario planning in urban and regional planning practice has grown in the last decade as one way to face uncertainty. However, in adapting scenario planning from its origins in the business sector, planners have eliminated two key components: 1) the use of multiple scenarios, and 2) the inclusion of diverse organisations, people and interests through deep deliberations. We argue that this shift limits the ability for planners to plan for multiple plausible and futures that are shaped by an increasing number of diverse actors. In this paper, we use case study research to exam how uncertainty was considered in four scenario planning processes. We analyzed and compared the cases based analytical categories related to multiple futures and diversity. We found that the processes that used multiple, structurally distinct scenarios explored a wider range of topics and issues shaping places. All four relied heavily on professional stakeholders as the scenario developers, limiting public input. Only those processes that included multiple futures captured the differential effects scenarios would have on diverse people and interests.

Publication
Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design