A Hybrid Land Conversion Model Incorporating Multiple End Uses

Abstract

The need for models that forecast land use change spans many disciplines. Pattern-based models were the first in which projections of change at specific locations in actual landscapes could be predicted. In contrast, recent economic models have modeled the underlying behavioral process that produces land use change. This paper combines attributes from each approach into a hybrid model using Multiple Discrete Continuous Extreme Value formulation that allows for multiple conversion types while estimating the intensity of each type of conversion. We demonstrate the simulation routine for three county region in Maryland, which successfully predicts a majority of growth by type, time, and location at a disaggregate scale.

Publication
Agricultural and Resource Economics Review